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Bathtub Curve

Reliability Engineering
mechanicalelectricalinstrumentation

Definition

A graph of the hazard rate versus time that describes the typical life cycle of a population of items, characterized by three distinct phases: (1) Infant Mortality — a decreasing failure rate period caused by manufacturing defects, installation errors, or design weaknesses; (2) Useful Life — a period of approximately constant, low failure rate representing random failures; (3) Wear-Out — an increasing failure rate period caused by age-related degradation mechanisms.

Context

The bathtub curve is the conceptual foundation for understanding equipment failure behavior and selecting maintenance strategies. Infant mortality drives the need for commissioning quality and burn-in; the constant-rate useful life phase means time-based replacement is ineffective; the wear-out phase justifies preventive replacement. Weibull analysis determines where an equipment population sits on the bathtub curve.

Examples

  1. A fleet of electronic controllers exhibits a bathtub curve with infant mortality during the first 500 hours (beta=0.7), constant failure rate from 500-40,000 hours (beta=1.0), and wear-out beyond 40,000 hours (beta=3.2).
  2. Modern reliability research shows that many equipment failure distributions do not follow the classic bathtub curve — only about 4% of industrial equipment exhibits the traditional three-phase pattern. The majority show either constant or early-life-dominant failure rates.

Applicable Standards

  • IEC 60300-3-1
  • SAE JA1011

Related Terms

Infant Mortality

The early-life period of a component or system characterized by a higher-than-normal failure rate that decreases over time (Weibull beta < 1). Infant mortality failures are caused by latent defects introduced during manufacturing, installation, or commissioning — they are not age-related degradation but rather quality problems that manifest early. Common causes include material defects, welding flaws, installation errors, contamination, and incorrect settings.

Wear-Out

The late-life period of a component or system characterized by an increasing failure rate over time (Weibull beta > 1), caused by progressive degradation mechanisms such as fatigue, corrosion, erosion, creep, and material aging. Wear-out failures are predictable and age-related, making them amenable to time-based or condition-based preventive maintenance strategies.

Random Failure

A failure that occurs with approximately constant probability per unit time, independent of the item's age or accumulated operating time (Weibull beta approximately 1). Random failures are caused by unpredictable combinations of stress and strength, external events, or operating conditions that cannot be anticipated by age-based inspection or maintenance. They are equally likely to occur at any point during the useful life period.

Hazard Rate

The instantaneous rate of failure at time t, given that the item has survived to time t. Hazard rate (also called the instantaneous failure rate or hazard function) describes how the risk of failure changes over the item's life. Unlike failure rate (which is an average), hazard rate is a time-dependent function that captures the changing nature of failure risk as equipment ages.

Weibull Distribution

A continuous probability distribution widely used in reliability engineering to model the time-to-failure of components and systems. The two-parameter Weibull distribution is defined by the shape parameter (beta) and scale parameter (eta). Its versatility lies in its ability to model increasing, constant, or decreasing failure rates depending on the shape parameter value, making it suitable for all phases of the bathtub curve.

Shape Parameter (Beta)(Beta)

The Weibull shape parameter (beta, also written as b or k) that determines the form of the failure distribution and the nature of the failure rate over time. Beta < 1 indicates decreasing failure rate (infant mortality); beta = 1 indicates constant failure rate (random failures, equivalent to exponential distribution); beta > 1 indicates increasing failure rate (wear-out). The value of beta reveals the physics of the dominant failure mechanism.

Where this appears in Reliatic

This concept is used in the Reliability Analytics module.